Tuesday, April 05, 2022

Recap: the Invasion of Gondor

Just weeks ago Sauron the Dark Lord of Mordor ordered the invasion of Gondor, ostensibly to demilitarise and "de-Numenorify" Gondor, and preserve the freedoms of ethnic Goblins in the Morgulian east.

Condemnation was swift from the nations of western Middle-Earth, but they had little appetite to engage Mordor directly. Rohan initially refused to send troops, and the Eagles were unwilling to risk escalation by entering the conflict zone.

After early territorial gains - particularly on the coast - the Mordorian advance slowed as the Gondorians held their ground and inflicted high casualties. Despite being heavily outnumbered, the defenders have the home advantage with strong popular support from the people of Gondor. The Gondorian armed forces are battle-hardened from years of fighting in the contested territories around the occupied city formerly known as Minas Ithil, and have benefited from significant military aid including large numbers of magically imbued anti-Oliphaunt and anti-Fellbeast arrows.

As the conflict has turned into a stalemate and Mordorian losses have mounted, the Mordor army has resorted to siege tactics. The city of Minas Tirith has been subjected to a heavy incendiary bombardment, creating a humanitarian (and possibly also halflingitarian and istaritarian) crisis.

Observers have been surprised at Sauron's lack of success in the war given his army's overwhelming numerical and resource advantage. In recent days, Gondorian counteroffensives have even succeeded in retaking territory around Belfalas and East Osgiliath. However the outcome on the ground is by no means certain. The Dark Lord still retains massive mobilisation potential, and Mordor possesses (and has already used) exotic capabilities such as hypersonic Nazgul screams and "Dawnless Day" aerial obscurement.

Gondor's best chance to win the war may actually be off the battlefield. Mordor's strength is inextricably linked to Ring power, and it has recently come to light that a historic multiparty agreement has been reached to deprive Sauron of this technology. Analysts believe this could be the key to crippling the Mordorian war machine and ending the conflict. However some western leaders have expressed reluctance at cutting themselves off from Ring power, so it remains to be seen whether the consensus will hold.