Saturday, September 07, 2013

If Australia had MMP...

The Australian Electoral Commission listed voters' first preferences here for 2013:

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-17496-NAT.htm

What would this have equated to if Australia used New Zealand's proportional MMP system?

Firstly, the parties that passed the 5% threshold:

Party Votes Percentage %
Australian Labor Party 3,585,236 33.85
Liberal 3,358,326 31.71
Liberal National Party 923,932 8.72
The Greens 892,117 8.42
Palmer United Party 591,493 5.58

Secondly, the parties didn't reach 5% but gained at least one electorate seat:

Party Seats Votes Percentage %
The Nationals 9          484,568 4.57
Country Liberals (NT) 1            36,603 0.35
Katter's Australian Party 1          105,485 1.00
Independent 1 (Assume negligible)

This results in eligible percentages and seats as follows:

Party Percentage % Eligible % # Seats
Australian Labor Party 33.85 35.93 54
Liberal 31.71 33.66 50
Liberal National Party 8.72 9.26 14
The Greens 8.42 8.94 13
Palmer United Party 5.58 5.92 9
The Nationals 4.57 4.85 9
Country Liberals (NT) 0.35 0.37 1
Katter's Australian Party 1 1.06 1
Independent 0.00 0.00 1
Total 94.2 100.00 152

So the result would have been:

  • Liberal/Liberal National/Nationals/Country Liberals is the frontrunner to form a government with 74 seats, but they would need a coalition partner. The only parties that have sufficient numbers are Palmer United and the Greens
  • Labor is theoretically still in the running if they could secure the support of 23 seats worth of coalition partners
  • The National Party has more seats than they would be allocated purely on vote %, so one of their electorate seats is an "overhang"
  • The Independent electorate MP that I've assumed has negligible vote % would be an "overhang" MP, increasing the size of the lower house to 152 total MPs

Monday, July 01, 2013

Bernard Tomic vs Tomas Berdych, bigger on the inside...

Today's Wimbledon schedule has this mirror image matchup. Is it actually possible for one to defeat the other? There's a serious risk of some kind of time loop developing here. I hope someone has a sonic screwdriver at the ready to sort all out.

Saturday, June 01, 2013

How to distinguish between a journalist and a blogger

Journalists get paid per word, so they throw in pointless padding junk such as

"That being said,"
"For sure,"
"As such,"