Monday, March 14, 2011

How to really predict NZ's earthquakes and volcanoes

The "Moon Man" Ken Ring claims to be able to predict earthquakes using lunar cycles, but I have found a far superior predictor of tragic geological events: unMondayised holidays.

2010 was a year with two unMondayised holidays (Waitangi and Anzac Days) and a major geological event - the 4 September earthquake near Christchurch.

2011 has one unMondayised holiday (Waitangi Day) and one forfeited holiday with Anzac Day falling on Easter Monday. This bizarre alignment has resulted in the most tragic earthquake of recent times - the 22 February earthquake.

After discovering this correlation, I examined NZ's history of major geological events and was astounded to find the following:

1953 Tangiwai disaster caused by the eruption of Mt Ruapehu, 151 people killed - Anzac Day was on a Saturday.

1931 Napier earthquake, 256 people killed - Anzac Day was on a Saturday.

1886 Tarawera eruption, 121 people killed and the Pink & White terraces destroyed - Waitangi Day was on a Sunday and Anzac Day was on a Saturday!

Some might argue that neither Waitangi nor Anzac Days actually existed as holidays in 1886, thus destroying the theory. Au contraire, this should have been taken as an omen for future generations that mere mortals shouldn't mess with fate by dabbling in the unnatural abomination of unMondayised holidays.

Some might mention that in 1929 the unMondayised Two landed slap bang in the middle of the week which didn't prevent the Murchison Earthquake that killed 17. Well I'm not some Moon Man predicting every little tremor and aftershock, I only get out of bed for the big stuff.

After 2011 we can probably breathe easy for a few years. However 2017 is shaping up as another big one as the holidays align once again, so be prepared for earthquakes, eruptions and tsunamis by sleeping in a flat open field at least 250 metres above sea level and away from any boulder-strewn hills. Actually volcanic eruptions can trigger lightning storms so you're probably stuffed there as well.

This article is not intended to trivialise the Christchurch earthquakes or any other natural disaster - but it definitely is intended to parody earthquake predictions based on spurious correlations.