Saturday, September 07, 2013

If Australia had MMP...

The Australian Electoral Commission listed voters' first preferences here for 2013:

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-17496-NAT.htm

What would this have equated to if Australia used New Zealand's proportional MMP system?

Firstly, the parties that passed the 5% threshold:

Party Votes Percentage %
Australian Labor Party 3,585,236 33.85
Liberal 3,358,326 31.71
Liberal National Party 923,932 8.72
The Greens 892,117 8.42
Palmer United Party 591,493 5.58

Secondly, the parties didn't reach 5% but gained at least one electorate seat:

Party Seats Votes Percentage %
The Nationals 9          484,568 4.57
Country Liberals (NT) 1            36,603 0.35
Katter's Australian Party 1          105,485 1.00
Independent 1 (Assume negligible)

This results in eligible percentages and seats as follows:

Party Percentage % Eligible % # Seats
Australian Labor Party 33.85 35.93 54
Liberal 31.71 33.66 50
Liberal National Party 8.72 9.26 14
The Greens 8.42 8.94 13
Palmer United Party 5.58 5.92 9
The Nationals 4.57 4.85 9
Country Liberals (NT) 0.35 0.37 1
Katter's Australian Party 1 1.06 1
Independent 0.00 0.00 1
Total 94.2 100.00 152

So the result would have been:

  • Liberal/Liberal National/Nationals/Country Liberals is the frontrunner to form a government with 74 seats, but they would need a coalition partner. The only parties that have sufficient numbers are Palmer United and the Greens
  • Labor is theoretically still in the running if they could secure the support of 23 seats worth of coalition partners
  • The National Party has more seats than they would be allocated purely on vote %, so one of their electorate seats is an "overhang"
  • The Independent electorate MP that I've assumed has negligible vote % would be an "overhang" MP, increasing the size of the lower house to 152 total MPs