Media attention is usually grabbed by the "hero" phones with high price-tags, leading-edge features, and huge marketing budgets. And while sales figures are very healthy for top-of-the-line phones such as the iPhone 4 and the Samsung Galaxy S III, they are really only appealing to two relatively small market segments: the cashed-up and the so-tech-obsessed-they're-willing-to-take-out-second-mortgages.
Most people buy their first smartphone when the price drops below a certain threshold - say $200. Often their needs are met by little more than a touch screen and Angry Birds. They don't care if the phone has a relatively small screen, lousy camera, is slow or has hardly any storage - they're just basking in the warmth of being new members of the smartphone "club". These are the people who make up the vast bulk of the sales figures, and they all without exception will buy Androids.
However, over time they will become aware of the cool things that other people's more expensive phones can do, which will make them irritated and frustrated with the limitations of their own phones. The temptation to upgrade may quickly become overpowering. The starter phone will soon have served its function as a gateway to more expensive phones.
So what phone are they likely to choose next? While there might be a few who find the shininess of an iPhone irresistible and not too much of a financial stretch, that's not the most likely outcome. Android will already be comforting and familiar, by now the owners would have their Google account setup and they would lose the apps they bought if they switched operating system. So they're probably going to stick with Android.
Entry level pricing gives Android a fundamental advantage over Apple in capturing and retaining new adopters. This is where Windows Phone needs to play if they want steady, sustainable growth. The Tango update allows Windows Phone to run on punier hardware, which is a good start. But I think Microsoft needs to go further.
For decades Microsoft has been giving Windows and Office away to schools to get the kids hooked before they've developed the ability to make their own independent decisions (Apple have been doing it too, but from what I've seen the margins aren't exactly being slashed).
With the launch of Windows 8, I'd expect that the education relaunch will be in full swing. Windows Phone should be an integral part of this. I think Microsoft could run courses on safe phone usage (you know the kind of thing - safe social media usage, the dangers of oversharing and how to handle electronic bullying), and as part of this they should offer discounted phones to educators and kids (with parental approval, of course).
The first time I saw a video of Windows Phone in action, I knew I wanted it. However my first smartphone was an Android, and I even upgraded to another Android. Partly this was due to cost, but also it was hard not to be scared off by largely negative media commentary about Windows Phone. It wasn't until a Windows Phone came up in a clearance sale three months ago that I finally followed through on my first preference. Now, I can't stop thinking about the Lumia 820, and I'm going to get one as soon as it's available in my area. If a $200 Windows Phone had been available when I was shopping for my first smartphone, I could have been at this point 18 months ago.
